The driverless future promised by next-generation mobility will be made possible by two new technologies: on-demand mobility services, such as ride-hailing and last-mile delivery, and autonomous vehicles (AVs), which can be used for consumer transportation and logistics. An innovation and its adoption advance along a fourphase lifecycle, and we can evaluate the performance of these two driverless mobility technologies using distinct progressions. This article presents an analysis of the AV innovation lifecycle and introduces four dimensions by which to measure its performance over time. Finally, it reveals five requirements that must be addressed before AV use can be scaled for consumer transportation and logistics.
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